THE LEVEL AND DYNAMICS OF MORBIDITY BY THE MAIN CLASSES OF DISEASES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE ABLE-BODIED POPULATION OF THE TURKESTAN REGION
Main Article Content
Keywords
morbidity, neoplasms, blood circulation, trauma, disease of the endocrine system
Abstract
The scientific article presents the results of a study of the incidence of the leading classes of diseases their prediction of the able-bodied population of the Turkestan region (per 100 thousand population). The purpose of the study. Analysis of morbidity indicators for the main classes of diseases and their prediction in the Turkestan region for the period 2011-2020. Materials and methods. The paper uses retrospective data for the period 2011-2020 for the Turkestan region. Results. When studying the levels and dynamics of morbidity of neoplasms, diseases of the circulatory system, injuries and poisoning and other effects, diseases of the endocrine system, morbidity of the nervous system, morbidity of the eye and its appendages, morbidity of the ear and mastoid process of the able-bodied population of the Turkestan region (retrospective data for the period 2011-2020) with their forecast for 2021-2023 (per 100 thousand of the total population) is characterized by a weak and medium-pronounced self-oscillatory trend. Conclusion. Thus, drawing conclusions from predictive models based on retrospective data on the incidence of the leading classes of diseases in the working-age population, it can be argued that there is an obvious visible decrease in the predicted levels in the short term. Whether this fact is related to certain reforms in the field of the healthcare system in terms of improving diagnostics, clinical and preventive work will depend on the results of deeper research in the industry.
Downloads
References
1. Regional Committee for Europe Sixty-second session. Health 2020 Policy Framework and Strategy. Malta, September 10-13, 2012 https://www.euro.who.int/data/assets/pdf_file/0011/170687/RC62wd08-Rus.pdf 2. Demographic situation in Kazakhstan. The population of Kazakhstan is aging: the number of elderly people has increased by 4% over the year, to 1.4 million people. http://www.zakon.kz / 3. M. Y. Soloviev, O. M. Kurashvili. The influence of the lifestyle factor on the health of the population // Chief Physician of the South of Russia. 2016. №2 (49). 4. Fitzmaurice C and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol. 2019 Dec 1;5(12):1749-1768. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996. Erratum in: JAMA Oncol. 2020 Mar 1;6(3):444. Erratum in: JAMA Oncol. 2020 May 1;6(5):789. Erratum in: JAMA Oncol. 2021 Mar 1;7(3):466. PMID: 31560378; PMCID: PMC6777271. 5. by Melonie Heron, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics. Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017. National Vital Statistics Reports. Volume 68, Number 6. June 24, 2019. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf 6. Kemelbekov Kanatzhan, Zhumabekov Zharylkap, Bektenova Gulmira, Baimakhanova Bakhtygul, Askambay Kulzina, Ospanova Elmira, Kuandykov Yerlan, Nazipa Bektibayeva, Venera Makhatova, Arkady Kotlyar. Minimally Invasive Surgical Treatment of Open Ductus Arteriosus in Premature Infants. http://www.sysrevpharm.org/?mno=125899 [Access: March 30, 2021]. doi:10.31838/srp.2020.5.99. 7. Ayazbekov, A., Nurkhasimova, R., Kulbayeva, S., Bolat, K., Kurmanova, A. M., Yeskarayeva, A., Kemelbekov, K. S. (2020). Features of Pregnancy, Childbirth and Postpartum Period of Young Mothers. Electronic Journal of General Medicine, 17(6), em260. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejgm/8459 8. WHO publishes statistics on the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide for the period 2000-2019. https://www.who.int/ru/news/item/09-12-2020-who-reveals-leading-causes-of-death-and-disability-worldwide-2000-2019 9. Haagsma JA et al. The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013. Inj Prev. 2016 Feb;22(1):3-18. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041616. Epub 2015 Dec 3. PMID: 26635210; PMCID: PMC4752630. 10. Khan, M., Grivna, M., Nauman, J., Soteriades, E.S., Chevik, A.A., Hashim, M.J., Govender, R., and Al Azizi, S.R. (2020). Global models of morbidity and mortality from pedestrian traffic injuries by socio-demographic index with forecasting: results of a study of the global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors for 2017. International Journal of Environmental and Public Health Research, 17(6), 2135. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17062135 11. Crowe CS et. al. Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. Inj Prev. 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i115-i124. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043495. Epub 2020 Mar 13. PMID: 32169973; PMCID: PMC7571361.https://www.who.int/ru/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death 12. https://aipm.kz/ru/novosti-i-sobytiya/2112-vsemirnaya-organizatsiya-zdravookhraneniya-10-vedushchikh-prichin-smerti-v-mire.html 13. European health report 2018. https://www.euro.who.int/en/data-and-evidence/european-health-report/european-health-report-2018 14. Gaeta M, Campanella F, Gentile L, Schifino GM, Capasso L, Bandera F, Banfi G, Arpesella M, Ricci C. European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016. Ann Ig. 2017 May-Jun;29(3):206-217. doi: 10.7416/ai.2017.2148. PMID: 28383612. 15. Siegel RL, Miller KD, Jemal A. Cancer Statistics, 2017. CA Cancer J Clin. 2017 Jan;67(1):7-30. doi: 10.3322/caac.21387. Epub 2017 Jan 5. PMID: 28055103. 16. Melonie Heron, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics. Deaths: Leading Causes for 2015. National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 66, No. 5, November 27, 2017. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_05.pdf 17. Khan SU, Yedlapati SH, Lone AN, Khan MS, Wenger NK, Watson KE, Gulati M, Hays AG, Michos ED. A comparative analysis of premature heart disease- and cancer-related mortality in women in the USA, 1999-2018. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. 2021 Feb 8:qcaa099. doi: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcaa099. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33555018. 18. Siegel RL, Miller KD, Jemal A. Cancer statistics, 2016. CA Cancer J Clin. 2016 Jan-Feb;66(1):7-30. doi: 10.3322/caac.21332. Epub 2016 Jan 7. PMID: 26742998.Siegel RL, Miller KD, Fuchs HE, Jemal A. Cancer Statistics, 2021. CA Cancer J Clin. 2021 Jan;71(1):7-33. doi: 10.3322/caac.21654. Epub 2021 Jan 12. Erratum in: CA Cancer J Clin. 2021 Jul;71(4):359. PMID: 33433946. 19. Rao Z., Hua J., Li R. et al. Changes in the six-month prevalence of circulatory system diseases among people aged 20 years and older in the period from 2013 to 2018 in Hunan, China. Int J Environment Public Health . 2021; 18 (5): 2599. Published on March 5, 2021 doi: 10.3390 /ijerph18052599 20. Leilei D et.al. The burden of injury in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Public Health. 2019 Sep;4(9):e449-e461. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(19)30125-2. PMID: 31493842; PMCID: PMC6739690. 21. Quantum AS, Ming C, Rottmann M, etc. Forecasts of cancer incidence and related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030. CancerMed . 2016; 5 (9): 2649-2656. DOI: 10.1002 / cam4.767 22. Bäckström D, Larsen R, Steinvall I, Fredrikson M, Gedeborg R, Sjöberg F. Deaths caused by injury among people of working age (18-64) are decreasing, while those among older people (64+) are increasing. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg. 2018 Aug;44(4):589-596. doi: 10.1007/s00068-017-0827-1. Epub 2017 Aug 20. PMID: 28825159; PMCID: PMC6096611. 23. Smittenaar CR, Petersen KA, Stewart K, Moitt N. Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035. Br J Cancer. 2016 Oct 25;115(9):1147-1155. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2016.304. Epub 2016 Oct 11. PMID: 27727232; PMCID: PMC5117795. 24. Kingston A, Robinson L, Booth H, Knapp M, Jagger C; MODEM project. Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model. Age Ageing. 2018 May 1;47(3):374-380. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afx201. PMID: 29370339; PMCID: PMC5920286. 25. Yuzkova E.M. Dynamics of morbidity of the population of Russian regions as an indicator of the quality of life of the population.http://www.vectoreconomy.ru/images/publications/2017/12/laboureconomics/Yuzkova.pdf 26. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/dinamika-zabolevaemosti-boleznyami-sistemy-krovoobrascheniya-vzroslogo-naseleniya-rossiyskoy-federatsii-v-2007-201 27. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/14/06/2021/60c3a4899a79476c883e763d 28. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sovremennye-problemy-travmatizma-v-rossiyskoy-federatsii 29. Report "Public health, health systems and the economic crisis in Europe: implications and implications for policy-making" // WHO Regional Office for Europe - 2013, p. 20 30. Report on the social determinants of health and differences in health indicators in the WHO European Region. // Copenhagen // WHO Regional Office for Europe. 2013 p. 7 31. The State Program for the Development of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan "Densaulyk" for 2016-2019: approved on January 15, 2016, No. 176. 32. E.T. Auezova, A.M. Aringazina. DYNAMICS OF THE MAIN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF ONCOPATHOLOGY FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2017. Bulletin of KazNMU No.3-2018. https://kaznmu.kz/press/wp-content/uploads/2018/11 33. Ismailov Zh.K., Syzdykova A.A., Isatayeva N.M., Baiserkin B.S., Tlemisova V.B. The Current Situation оf the Healthcare system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Materials of the Final Conference of the Project "Technology Transfer And Institutional Reform In The Healthcare Sector Of The Republic Of Kazakhstan". Manager No. 4 (17) 2015 34. D.S. Yesimov, N.B. Yesimov, N.T. Izmailova. Analysis of health indicators of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2015 and 2016. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/analiz-pokazateley-zdorovya-naseleniya-respubliki-kazahstan-za-2015-i-2016-gody 35. A.M. Dauletbakova, D.K. Ongarova, A.N. Nurbakyt, A.M. Raushanova. Standardized incidence of malignant neoplasms in Kazakhstan. Bulletin of KazNMU No.1-2020.pp.594-597 36. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/epidemiologicheskie-aspekty-zabolevaemosti-zlokachestvennymi-novoobrazovaniyami-v- kazahstane . 37. M.A. Buleshov, S.N. Alipbekova, S.A. Tuktibayeva. MODERN MEDICAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY RATES IN THE WORKING AGE POPULATION. VESTNIK КАZNМU #1-2021. file:///C:/Users/Admin/Downloads/modern-medical-and-social-aspects-of-morbidity-and-mortality-rates-in-the-working-age-population.pdf 38. Botasheva L.S. Some aspects of assessing the labor potential of the region. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/separate-aspects-of-assessment-of-labor-potential-of-the-region 39. V.A. Arkhipov, E.S. Mendybaev, A.M. Aringazina. ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL MORBIDITY IN 2008-2018 OF THE TURKESTAN REGION IN COMPARISON WITH THE REPUBLICAN INDICATORS. Bulletin of KazNMU No. 1-2020. 40. OZA, D. P. (2018). Aesthetics of Sublime V/S Subliminal: Comparison and Contrast in Dalit Writings. Dr. Vivekanand Jha, 3(1), 132. 41. Oza, P. (2018). Neo-Liberal Ideologies in Higher Education. Higher v/s Hired Education, 41. 42. Oza, P. Role of Buddhism in Transforming Social Dogmas: Dhamma and Social Justice for Dalits in India. 43. Oza, P. (2019). Employability Enhancement through Teaching Creative Writing in the Time of Autodidact Talent. 44. Oza, P. (2021). Buddhist Iconography and Religious Symbolism in different Buddhist Statues. Available at SSRN 3842904. 45. Oza, P. (2019). Buddhism in Modern India: Assertion of Identity and Authority for Dalits (Social Changes and Cultural History). GAP BODHI TARU-A GLOBAL JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES, 2(3), 46-49. 46. Oza, P. (2018). Gagged Narratives from the Margin: Indian Films and the Shady Representation of Caste. GAP Gyan-A Global Journal of Social Sciences, 2. 47. Oza, P. (2022). Buddhism and Social Relational Theories From India to the World. Available at SSRN 4036069. 48. Oza, P. (2020). Film and Literature. Mumbai, India: ResearchGate. 49. Oza, P. (2019). „Little Magazines in India and Emergence of Dalit Literature.‟. GAP Interdisciplinarities-A Global Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. 50. Akpah, B. (2019). Land of Tales (Poetry Collection) Ibadan: Kraftbooks. Pgs.1-100 51. Akpah, B. C. (2020). Poetics of Advocacy: Womanhood and Feminist Identity in Patricia Jabbeh Wesley’s Where the Road Turns. 52. Akpah, B. C. (2018). Voice of liberation: A womanist reading of Lynn Chukura’s Archetyping’. Literary and Linguistic Perspective on Orality, Literacy and Gender Studies: A Celebration of Oluwatoyin Jegede, 60, 221-234. 53. Akpah, B. C. (2018). Satire, humour and parody in 21st Century Nigerian women’s poetry. The European Journal of Humour Research, 6(4), 133-144. 54. Akpah, B.C. (2018). X-raying contemporary consciousness in the poetics of Northern Nigerian women. Ife Journal of Language and Literature. Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria. www.http//www.oauife.edu.ng ISSN: 2467-8635 pg 188-203. 55. Akpah, B.C., Jayeoba, O.O & Sonde, O. S. (2018). Traditional African nidation in works of selected contemporary African poets Journal of Capital Development and Behavioural Sciences Vol. 6 Issue One. Ibadan: Lead City University Press. Pp.85-100. 56. Akpah, B.C & Jayeoba, O. S. (2018). Overview and tracking of modern African poetry Journal of Capital Development and Behavioural Sciences Vol. 6 No.2 ISSN: 2449-0679 Ibadan: Lead City University Press. pp. 127-144 57. Akpah, B.C., & Ade Adejumo (2016). Migration, Peripheralism and Dilemma of Being: A Post-colonial Reading of Adichie’s The thing around our neck. Africa: Journal of Contemporary Issues. Vol. 14. No. 14. 58. Akpah, B.C. (2018). Comparative feminist perspectives in Lola Shoneyin’s So All the Time I 59. Was Sitting on an Egg and Halima Usman’s Spellbound in Language and Literature for Communication in Humanities Societies: Papers in Honour of Late Dr. Elizabeth Amagah. Port-Novo: Africatex Media Pp.119-134. 60. Akpah, B.C. (2018). Voice of liberation: A womanist reading of Lynn Chukura’s Archetyping. Festschrift Essays in Honour of Professor Oluwatoyin Jegede @60. Ibadan: Kraft Books Pp. 61-69. 61. Akpah, B.C (2019). Empowerment in Nigerian women’s poetics. Perspectives on Language, Literature & Human Rights: Essays in Honour of Professor Florence Onyebuchi Orabueze. (Eds) Chukwumezie, T. M. E, Ogenyi, L.C, Ononye, C.F, Ejesu, O.A. Pp.89-110. 62. Akpah, B. C. (2022). Poetics of peacebuilding and reconciliation: a socio-feminist reading of Mabel Osakwe’s Dessert of Blooms International Conference of Gender Studies in Africa (Book of Abstracts) (ed.) Ssali, S. N. Makarere University School of Women and Gender Studies https://events.mak.ac.ug// 63. Akpah, B.C. (2022). Negotiating National Cohesion and the Rhetoric of Herdsmen Attack in Ahmed Yerima’s Hendu Canadian Association of African Studies 2022 (May 16-19, 2022 - Virtual) https://caas-acea.org 64.
Article Sidebar
Published
Mar 15, 2023
Article Details
How to Cite
1.
1Tuktibayeva Saule, 1Alipbekova Sandugash, 1Omarova Balnur, 3Kemelbekov Kanatzhan, 2Beisenbayeva Zh., 2Tursunbekov A., 1Yessenbekov Berik
THE LEVEL AND DYNAMICS OF MORBIDITY BY THE MAIN CLASSES OF DISEASES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE ABLE-BODIED POPULATION OF THE TURKESTAN REGION
. 2023 Mar. 13;94(1): 855-871. Available from: https://mattioli.1885journals.com/article/2023/855.html
Issue
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Transfer of Copyright and Permission to Reproduce Parts of Published Papers.
Authors retain the copyright for their published work. No formal permission will be required to reproduce parts (tables or illustrations) of published papers, provided the source is quoted appropriately and reproduction has no commercial intent. Reproductions with commercial intent will require written permission and payment of royalties.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.